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In my last insider update in November 2024 which feels like an eternity ago, my partners and I discussed VC trends from each of our geographies: Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, India, and Southeast Asia. Today, I have three topics: 1/ the elephant (or tiger or durian or capybara) in the room: trade wars and their impact on the Global South; 2/ embracing “a year of living agentically” [from an AI perspective]; and 3/ we completed fundraising for our Global South fund and will have first close of Capria India III soon (and we’re open for new investors).

Trade Wars: Who Are the Winners and Losers?

I try to avoid politics in biz, but in this case, politics is impacting biz for so many. While it’s a bit difficult to put this list up without sounding self-serving, here it goes. Before discussing the winners list, I’ll note that most pundits agree that, from container ships already emptying and orders falling, China will be hurt at least in the short term. And the betting markets (which are scarily right most of the time, Polymarket being a good proxy) are mixed to negative on the overall effect on US GDP and inflation (or at worst, stagflation).

Ask advanced LLMs, or read neutral global media, about what countries will benefit the most from the current US trade wars. Here’s the short list (and why)

1. Mexico — first call for U.S. near-shoring
2. India — electronics & diversified manufacturing
3. Vietnam — apparel & consumer electronics, still a moving target
4. Indonesia — critical minerals & battery inputs
5. Brazil — agricultural substitution to China

Needless to say, our teams on the ground in all of these countries are tracking things closely and are seeing both growing strength in existing portfolio companies and new opportunities sailing on the tailwinds of AI and trade benefit expectations. Our Global South portfolio is here. If a connection to any would be helpful, please ask.

Embracing Agentic AI – No Code Solutions and More

In January, I wrote a provocative internal memo to our team titled “A Year of Living Agentically” — a riff on the 1982 film The Year of Living Dangerously, which I highly recommend. I challenged our firm to take our use of AI to an even higher level and for everyone to make their jobs easier with AI, now. Not later. My partners agreed. We set aside an entire day during our March global leadership summit in Istanbul to embrace the agentic AI wave head-on. But I had made a bold decision: instead of just talking, we would take action, now.

Twenty-two professionals—most with limited technical background—would each build their own AI-powered application, from scratch, in under two hours. No excuses. No engineers. No lifelines. I selected a brand-new low-code platform called Lovable, which promised to make this possible. A weekend earlier, I’d tested it by building a test-driving app to score potential new electric cars. It worked. Mostly. But I’m a computer science grad from Brown University, and even I hit some snags. And yet here I was, asking our entire firm, global investors, strategists, and operators from Seattle to Jakarta, to leap off a technological cliff with me. That night, while staring across the Bosphorus — yes, the hotel that met our budget had amazing views of the east-meets-west waterway — I had to ask myself: What if I’m wrong?

What Happened Next Was… Electrifying.

We began the next morning with a short intro and nothing more. People grouped into trios. I told them: “Make something compelling. Anything. Personal or professional. You’ve got 90 minutes.”

Here are 5 of the dozen-plus apps that emerged:

• FlightTime: A real-time dashboard that calculates when to leave your hotel based on traffic, weather, and airport conditions.
• Investor Lens: A stunning pitch site for our next fund, built in under two hours and more visually compelling than our corporate website.
• Fitness Quest: A gamified wellness tracker—steps, calories, goals, rewards. Clean, elegant, and usable.
• Global Pulse: A single-screen hub showing time zones, exchange rates, market shifts, and VC news across our international investments.
• Visa Compass: A tool that helps Nigerian passport holders find visa-friendly travel destinations, ranked by friction.

Every one of these apps worked. And every one of them was created by someone who had never built software before. But the apps weren’t the best part. The emotions were.

• “I can’t believe I did it.”

• “How did it understand what I meant? On the first try?”

• “This is the closest thing to magic I’ve ever seen.”

• “I’ve dreamed of making something like this for years—and I just did it.”

I saw sparks ignite—sparks of confidence, creativity, agency. And in that moment, I knew: this is what the future looks like. Not AI replacing people. AI amplifying them. Unlocking builders in every role, every industry.

Why You Should Be Living Agenticly Too

I’ve been part of every major technology wave in the last four decades—from the dawn of PCs to the explosion of smartphones to the rise of cloud computing. None of them compare to the scope, speed, and scale of this AI revolution. But many are still hesitating with this one, the biggest in a generation. They poke at ChatGPT. They dabble. They outsource to their IT department. They wait and see. And meanwhile, the world is moving on without them. Please internalize the lesson above and don’t be left behind.

The above is an excerpt from my upcoming book, Flourishing with AI, now available in draft form via an AI-guided non-linear reading chatbot. Email me if you want to try it out. I love feedback, and I’m looking for more stories to add to the book.

Closed One Fund, Launching Another

On March 31, we completed fundraising for our Global South Fund II. We’ve already made 11 investments, the most recent of which is supporting SME manufacturing in India. (Would you have guessed that given my opening above?). The company is Magma – read more here.

Very soon we will reach the first close of Capria India Fund III. Another non-surprise given my introduction. We’re open to accepting new investors via our Delaware-based USD feeder fund or directly into our India-based INR master fund. Learn more here. Email me if you’d like detailed info.

It’s hard to predict where things will be for the USA by the time I write again, but I’m confident things will be good and getting better for our Global South investments, especially in India.